Why did the First World War end when it did?

This was war on a scale that the world had never seen before, and Hough It would never see again. However, a question that Is often glossed over Is why the war ended on Armistice Day, at the eleventh hour. It is a combination of different events, all leading to the fact that Germany ran out of food, supplies, and manpower, and had to surrender. Furthermore, as America had entered the war the previous year, the Germans realized that they were going to lose, and that drawing it out would only Increase casualties and long-term effects. One of the reasons Germany was ‘bled white', to use their own term, was the successful British NavalBlockade, which caused mass starvation, and turned the country on itself with riots and the naval mutiny. The American president, Woodrow Wilson, had been campaigning for a ceasefire, which led to the US invasion of Germany, and when Kaiser Wilhelm abdicated on the 9th November, the war was all but over. To begin with, the main reason for the end of t he war was a simple lack of supplies on all sides, but Germany had especially been hit hard. Although both sides launched renewed offensives In early 1918 In a desperate attempt to win the war, both efforts failed.The fighting between exhausted, demoralized troops continued to approach a stalemate until the Germans lost a number of individual battles and very gradually began to be pushed back. A deadly outbreak of influenza, meanwhile, took heavy casualties on both sides. Eventually, the governments of both Germany and Austria-Hungary began to lose control as both countries experienced multiple mutinies from within their military structures, and due to mass starvation, many call riots were held In Berlin. The naval war Is generally considered a side show In worldWar l: in fact it was a critical part of the war, with especially the naval blockade of Germany being hugely important. If the Germans were to be stopped it would have to be done by the French Army, but what the British did have was the Royal Navy. The Government ordered the Royal Navy to immediately cut the flow of raw materials and foodstuffs to Germany, which would not affect the German offensive, but it was the launch of a war of attrition which would ultimately play a major role In the Allied victory. Another factor that contributed to the end of the war was the introduction ofAmerican troops into the fighting. On April 2, 1917, President Woodrow Wilson asked a special session of Congress to declare war on the German Empire, saying â€Å"We have war in a positive light, claiming it would â€Å"make the world safe for democracy† and that it would be a â€Å"war to end war†. On April 6, 1917, Congress declared war, and in the end it was Germany's use of U-boats that pushed America into a corner and ultimately to declare war: on February 4th, 191 5, Germany announced that merchant shipping in a specified zone around Britain would be legitimate targets.They added hat this would include neutral ships because many Allied ships had taken to flying the flag of a neutral nation to assist its safety. America's military build-up was (relatively) slow: General Perishing demanded a million men, to which the American Congress replied it could gather 420,000 by spring 1918. However, the anticipated influx of military supplies from America never materialized. For the most part the troops fought with equipment supplied by the Allies (including the recognizable helmet). American troops saw their first action in May 1918 in fighting alone at the Manner River.In June 1918, Perishing ordered an all-out attack in the Saint-Mile area of Eastern France. Casualties were high but the attack forced a German retreat that (combined with other Allied offensives along the Western Front) put the entire German army on the back foot. In early October, the Americans pushed through the Argonne Forest. The German High Command began to crack in the face of the persistent Allied onslaught. General Ultrasound was forced to resign and flee to Sweden, a feeling of mutiny spread among the Kaiser's naval units, and the Kaiser myself was forced to abdicate on November 9.On the other hand, the American assistance nearly came too late: as both sides desperately tried to gain the upper hand in 1918, Germany very nearly won an attack, as the American troops were delayed. Fortunately, Willow's men eventually arrived, and this attack can be regarded as the tipping point that signaled the final stages of the war. The war ended for a number of different reasons, all leading to the fact that there was no longer anything to fight with, or anyone to Join the German army.Many Americans live that America won the war, and the truth is much more subtle: it is true that the war would have lasted longer without the Allied support of Woodrow Wilson, but it was not a war of tactics, but of attrition. There is no denying that the First World War was a catastrophic failure of humanity, and the question s of motivation have been analyses endlessly. I believe that the reasons for the peace treaty are equally interesting, and as it shows that some good can come from four years of atrocities, it is clear why we remember all those who have died in war on the 1 lath of November. Word count: 1019 Ben Phillips

Prose and poetry Essay

Creative writing carries with it a myriad of challenges that are more than often conflicting or ironically similar. Let me start off by setting aside specific characteristics of languages. For instance, general talk typically employs ordinary language. Hence, verbs do what they are developed to do, and this also applies to nouns. Therefore, by examining diverse characteristics of language, it is crucial to assert that, such aspects as rhymes are characteristically poetic attribute of language and rarely is it employed in everyday language; when we do, we cackle because it assumes unnatural tone. And, yet, when employed decisively, or when brought to the forefront of an incident of lingo, rhyme acquires the dimensions of exquisiteness. In this regard, we have definitely treaded from mere lingo into sphere of literature. All in all, poetry and prose have common characteristics noticeably. This examination concludes that, there subsists a realm of equally poetic prose and prose poetry, meaning there subsists no broader variation involving the two. However, a poet cannot do without a well developed organization of language this is due to the fact that, poem thrives on the concepts of stanzas and rhymes among others. On the other hand, sentences lean towards prose, while metaphors are applicable to both poetry and prose (Bortolussi, et al, 2003). Prose writing generally tags along the standard regulations in syntax, punctuation, sentence structure and capitalization. Poetry time and again do not, this is commonly attributed to expressive grounds, and each word, interlude, is cautiously selected to say the most by using the minimal words. Therefore, for an individual to answer this question without being a poet, the remedy is to shun the use of stanzas, lines as well as meter. This is due to the fact that, prose is more of fiction or non fiction writing. Prose is the lingo of everyday communication, or the symbols medium that apes it. Sister Carrie (1900) is a classic novel authored by the reknowned American Theodore Dreiser. The novel revolves around the dramatic live of a young country girl who had moved to the big city in order to realize her own American dream. Examining this narration in the manner that Shakespeare treats his work, it would be pivotal to assert that, perhaps he could have developed a tragic sequel or another romantic episode. Consider the fact that, Shakespeare is commonly viewed as a feminist; therefore, there is a possibility that, he could have developed a satirical drama that resonate with the broader context of ordinary American folks. And this points to the fact that, he could have attempted to inject life to the characters as is exposed by his previous works. Equally, looking the manner by which Theodore Dreiser presented his case, it would be paramount to assert that, he could have changed the entire scope presented in The Tempest to fit his short stories fascinations. It is notable that, as an author he strongly employed prose to present his works which strongly departed from the realms of highly plotted fiction work. Therefore, if he was the one who had authored The Tempest, there is a possibility that, he could have presented a well articulated but a long novel. This has been established by the fact that, most of his works are crowded by bulk or long novels rather than short narratives. In essence, he could have revolved within an axis of creating a novel that catered for his audience who perhaps includes the middle class citizens. Moreover, Dreiser’s works extensively influenced the pragmatic writings by such authors as Stephen Crane, Jack London, as well as Ernest Hemingway. â€Å"The Idiot† is basically on the thought that, Myshkin is not naturally bright, this is due to the fact that, as the author point, the lad was not educated, and typically criss-crossed the world with a mindset of simplistic virtuousness. When verbalizing his views, he struggles to clear himself with Charlie Brown-like stuttering and insipidity. It is on this ground that, the inhabitants reputed that he was an idiot, but actually, he was a fine, sincere, considerate, and gracious being. The novel appears to posit that a pious man, navigating his paths in a people that are apprehensive with covetousness and ruthless avarice, will be judged as foolish idiot for valuing integrity, kindness, and the plain things in life. Possibly, it is due to his ingenuousness that all and sundry, including Dr. Schneider referred to him as an idiot. From the novel, Prince Myshkin appears to subsist as if in an undying status of contemplation, of absolute-calmness. Equally, it looks as if that via Myshkin, Dostoyevsky perceives the spiritual familiarity as an enjoyable unknowingness. Therefore, in regard to chapter eleven, it can be assumed that, though the Prince was treated as an idiot, he loved to keep it simple and sincere. Hence, he opted to be uncomplicated rather than be wicked. In principal, the prince could not have objected or denied to be called an idiot, this can be linked to the fact that, he had spent a quite long time in the sanitarium where he had gone to seek medication. This coupled with his personal principles made him to withstand despite the fact that, he was innocent and candid in his ways. In as far as he was concerned, the remark fits considerably. Conceivably, this is why Dostoevsky prefers to use it now and then. Examining the kind of people who were surrounding the Prince, it is instrumental to realize that, the nature of their characteristics conflicted with what the Prince believed. Therefore, the features of virtue which he cherished and treasured were viewed and interpreted as a sign of weakness. Hence, the usage and application of the word idiot acquired another shape and meaning. A name or a title carries a wealth of honor and prestige. Therefore, a name can be said to be a sign of honor or as well prestige. To answer the question posed, it would be pragmatic to posit that, there are deep-rooted mystical powers in the names we give to others or objects. For instance, on Christian perspective, it is widely claimed that, one of the major act after creation that Adam was assigned was to name each and every beast. Hence, one of the most instrumental aspect of a parental power or authority is to decide and determining the nature of the name to be given to his or her child. Thus a name or a title may depict personality or ones social status as well as ones position in any given community. Also a name carries with it cultural and ethnic identity. Exploring the aspects of the novel The Idiot Fyodor Dostoyevsky, one cannot fail to realize the effect of a name on an individual. It is on that principle that, when the prince is addressed or viewed as an idiot because of his views and moral uprightness, the larger society perceived him to be so. Thus a name holds particular attributes that are allied to the bearer of that given name or title. From the ancient time, to the contemporary world today, names or titles are held in high. I consider that a name can assist to mould you into what you become but not establish who you will be. In conclusion, names as well as titles are given to reflect a sort of identity. There are those who take certain names or title due to ethnic identity, while others are propelled to do due to religious obligations. However, going back to the query â€Å"what is in a name or a title? Perhaps the answer may look ridiculous, but the general answer to this question is typically that nothing is in a name, and the factual person is within. Nevertheless, at some point in a time when individuals were graded in a class, it would be quite clear to assert that literature had a system of bringing or creating a new connotation to that subject (Bortolussi, et al, 2003). Reference Bortolussi, M; Dixon, P. (2003). Literary Response. N. Y: Routledge.

Intrinsic Versus Extrinsic Motivation Research Paper - 1

Intrinsic Versus Extrinsic Motivation - Research Paper Example   In his article, Lepper, and corpus involved seven hundred and ninety-seven third-grade participants to the learners at the eighth grade from two different schools from the San Francisco district around the California’s Bay Area. In the first district, the study included 577 participants, from large urban region, whereas the second district constituted about 220 participants in the suburban area identified for great performance in academics. Generally, the subjects that were selected in this study were divided equally across the different grading levels starting from grade three to grad. The number of the female participants were equal to that of the male participants with one of the participants not providing his sex details. The total population sample was made up of Asian Americans (42%), African Americans (2%), Caucasian (34%), Hispanic (5%), and children from different ethnic groups (10). The Chinese, and the Indian America, Japanese American, Korean American, Filipino American, and Vietnamese American,were identified as Asian subjects. During the study Lepper, and corpus used a questionnaire as a tool for collecting data. Questionnaires together with separate indices of extrinsic and intrinsic motivation, and the vital questions of demography on age, sex, and ethnicity were given to the participants after obtaining the consent from their parents in the classrooms of participating. For the participants from the second district, the social desirability measure was taken into consideration in the questionnaire.  

Critical Essay On The Book The Crusades through Arab Eyes

Critical On The Book The Crusades through Arab Eyes - Essay Example The book stands out among other books written on this subject, for it differs from other books in its focus. Majority of books have depicted the Crusades from the Western perspective. This book focuses on the Arab forces and their thoughts. The author begins the book by describing the fear that Franj troops created in the minds of Arab leaders. King Kilij Arslan was the first Arab King who was informed about the approach of Franj troops. â€Å"The King Kilij Arslan whom Ibn al-Qalanisi mentions here was not yet seventeen when their invader arrived. The first Muslim leader to be informed of their approach, but also the first to be routed by the formidable knights.  The news of the invasion was received with fear, as Arslan was aware that the Franj troops brought ruin and destruction. The attitude of Arab world towards Franj troops is depicted in the thoughts of Arslan. Although they were ignorant of their aims, they were sure that Franj troops were coming to harm them. Arslan repre sented the outlook of the Arab world towards Franj troops. â€Å"He immediately feared the worst. Naturally, he had no idea as to the real aims of these people, but in his view, nothing good could come of their arrival in the Orient.†. The Arab world viewed the Franj troops with distrust and fear.  The book also sheds light on the conduct of Arabs and Franj troops during the Crusades. The Franj troops claimed that they followed the teachings of Christian but their behaviour defied their claim.  Ã‚  

Haiti Earthquake Research Paper Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1250 words

Haiti Earthquake - Research Paper Example Except, this latest earthquake has brought to surface the fragility of the Haitian government and institutions because of their inability to provide survivors basic care and necessary safety nets (Amnesty International, 2011). There has been a considerable amount of evidence and proof that shows the poor functioning of the government in bringing the life back to normal in the earthquake hit zones. Haitian citizens are left homeless, displaced, living in makeshift tents, and now are fighting daily against Cholera which has been introduced into environment by United Nations. In this paper, let us analyze the outcome of the quake which has paved way for the development of internal conflicts and the steps that needs to be taken to prevent the internal conflict. Haiti will have to learn from other such earthquake prone zones as to how to face the consequences. Variable Natural Disaster Internal Conflict (Direct Variable) (Independent Variable) Owing to the imbalance and proper organizatio n of powers there tend to be a lot of problem in a country in case of a natural disaster like that of an earthquake. There are several conflicts that will arise out of a situation like earthquake that will drain out human resource, economy and also life balance in a region. Many political, economic, and social conflicts bound to happen. Hypothesis There is definite relationship between the 2010 Haitian earthquake and internal conflict. Theory The 2010 Haitian earthquake will stimulate internal conflict if the vulnerabilities of the people aren’t handled quickly and efficiently. Currently, earthquake survivors are going hungry, dying from the lack of sanitation, and women are being sexually abuse. These are some of the many vulnerabilities being exacerbated by the earthquake. Haitians were poor and lacked resources before the earthquake but the atrocities left behind have intensified those vulnerabilities. The country will be on the brink of an internal conflict you must defin e/operationalize internal conflict! if proper precautions aren’t taken now. There are various studies that demonstrate that an earthquake and a natural disaster can bring a population closer. Just as there many studies showing that sudden disasters, change on the environment can bring pressure to states with the inability to properly handle a natural disaster. This paper deals with the natural disaster and the potential consequences that may arise out of such tough situation. The output will be compared with that of the Haitian situation in order to get the derivative. Yes, there is obvious unrest, lack of housing, and scarcity of other resources. However, in this research paper I would like to examine how natural disasters that occur in underdeveloped countries can lead to internal conflict by looking at other underdeveloped countries which has experienced natural disasters. Literature Review Natural disasters occur suddenly and thus the reason that these create the most ana rchy within a region. The people are the worst sufferers because their homes have been dismantled and the property that remained within their fore is affected nonetheless (Topkaya, 2011). The United Nations defines natural disaster as â€Å"the consequences of events triggered by natural hazards that overwhelm local response capacity and seriously affect the social and economic development of a region.†

Literature Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 750 words - 6

Literature - Essay Example Burke argues that in `Daddy’ Sylvie Plath proves otherwise. Security, or authority, as defined by Plath is an authoritarian state which is expressed in fascist and militaristic domination. Accordingly, Plath’s father is a Nazi soldier while she is a helpless Jew. This analogy depicts security at its most extreme but, as Plath proves, it can be escaped. Security can be escaped as it is a state of mind. In order for oppression/security to occur, the oppressed has to accept it. Plath’s rejection of her `father,’ and of his control establishes that escape from security is possible if the oppressed reject it. This is the manner in which Burke interprets Plath’s poem and, as earlier mentioned, it is an extremely interesting interpretation. Ramzani, a professor of English Literature, argues that several of Plath’s poems, and most especially `Daddy,’ are elegies, or poems of mourning. Ramzani acknowledges that her interpretation of Plath’s poem, `Daddy,’ will create a great deal of controversy for one simple reason. This reason is that, literary critics define elegies as poems of love in which a dead person is both honored and remembered. They are, in the tradition of poetic genres, among the most beautiful and, quite often, the most romantic. To suggest, therefore, the Plath’s `Daddy’ is an elegy, as were many of Milton’s and Shelley’s appears, therefore, to be based on a misinterpretation and misunderstanding of the characteristics of the elegiac genre. This criticism would only hold true if Plath were writing in the same era and tradition as Milton or Shelley but the fact that has to be taken into account is that she is a post-modern poet. In other words, the de finition and style of the elegy has changed. It is still a poem of communication with the dead and a poem of morning but, rather than express love, it can express rage. This is

The Christiana UPS building Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 250 words

The Christiana UPS building - Essay Example The problem with UPS Christiana building is that the amount of work they handle has increased, hence, expansion is the only end to this congestion. Implementing the proposed solution will not require additional invention. UPS Christiana only needs to assign available constructors to use already existing tools, equipments, and materials to complete the expansion. I doubt the feasibility of this plan since implementation depends solely on the availability of land that the author does not assure us of. The executive summary is not concise and accurate because it does not give an exact explanation of how a large building will lead to faster arrival of customer packages. Additionally, using unclear phrases such as â€Å"our competition is designing new systems and technologies to compete with us† makes the executive summary to lose accuracy and ability to engage the reader. The summary discusses all parts of the assignment, but the information given in some parts is irrelevant. Considering several flaws in the executive summary, I would not read the business plan as an executive because I would expect it to be a piece of bori ng text. When writing an executive summary, the author should remember that they are writing to people with busy schedules who need accurate information that is specific and relevant to the problem that the business planners intend to

Chalenges in Developing Journal Body Paragraph Essay

Chalenges in Developing Journal Body Paragraph - Essay Example In most cases, I find it challenging to support my prejudices, assumptions and stereotypes. Occasionally, most of my body paragraphs are less logical and appealing. Misplaced statements, clichà ©s and metaphors are also common in my body paragraphs. Another major challenge during the development of body paragraph is coherency and consistency. The information volumes from different sources are sometimes misleading from the main topic hence making the body paragraph lose consistency.    Revisions remain the most challenging process in writing since it involves various aspects. In most instances, revisions are demanding given the client’s ultimatums and requests. However, with revision plans, revisions are less problematic. Focusing on the paper weaknesses remains my biggest revision strategy. While doing the paper, I am always aware of areas that were problematic. Therefore, I always plan early in areas that I felt I was weak.    Creating consistency and focus in my papers remains my greatest challenge. The fact that in normally acquire information from different sources, in most cases, they end up misleading me during the paper development. In fact, it makes my paper loose consistency. I also tend to lose focus from the main argument and the thesis. Another challenge that I always experience is creating an effective paper flow within the paragraphs. In most cases, I end up losing track of the topic. Addressing consistency and flow within the paper depends on continuous practice and revisions.

Three Values to a Better Country Essay Example for Free

Three Values to a Better Country Essay It is so outstanding because it is the only developed country in the Asia. It has many strongpoints which other countries should learn from it. However, just like an old English proverb saying-there is no perfect thing in the world. Even though Japan is a very strong country, it still has many aspects which should be improved. In my opinion, there are three values which would help make Japan a better country. They are open-minded, responsibility and humor. First is open-minded. Although Japan has been influenced a lot by western culture, most people still stick to the conservative concept-female should stay at home, not go outside to work. In 2007, Japans GEM(United Nations Development Programs Gender Empowerment Measure, which gauges equality by tracking womans participation in politics and business) was ranked 54th out of 93 countries. Japanese should be open-minded and encourage female to work. If female work, their talent and education can be best made use of. What is more, since males and females are complementary in many aspects, their cooperations with males can propel economic development more effectively. Second is responsibility. According to a survey conducted by Japanese Youth Institute, about 59. 7% American teenagers and 46. 9% Chinese teenagers can be responsible for themselves, but for Japanese teenagers, only 25. %. Because of the lack of responsibility, they do not care about anything, no matter their families or their country; when they meet problems, what they think is not how to solve them, but how to put off their liabilities. We can imagine what awful situation Japan will be if one day this generation takes over it. How can the people without responsibilities be able to develop a country? Therefore responsibility is a very important value if Japan wants to improve. The third one is humor. As we all know, Japan is a country with the highest suicide rate. There are very severe competitions in Japan and Japanese live in a fast-tempo lifestyle. Theyre under much pressure everyday and these pressure lead to suicide. So how to relieve pressure is very crucial. According to scientific research, humor can help people relax themselves, relieve their life pressures and keep their mental healthy. In short, humor can make people have a positive life attitude. Only when people are happy, can they contribute to countrys development. So humor is another value which would help make Japan a better country. When Japanese are more open-minded, they can improve themselves and develop their country; when more Japanese have responsibilities, their society can be more harmonious; when Japanese have more humor, their lives can be more interesting. All in all, if Japan wants to become a better country, open-minded, responsibility and humor would help make it.

Modernism in poetry Essay Example for Free

Modernism in poetry Essay Modernism. It is a direction of poetry, literature and art in general that uses and describes new and distinctive features in the subjects, forms, concepts and styles of literature and the other arts in the early decades of the present century, but especially after World War I. (Abrams 167) More often than not Modernism engages in deliberate and radical break (Abrams 167) with more traditional foundation of art and culture, established since XIX century. Here two poets of modernist age – T. S. Elliot and H. Crane – are compared to T. Hardy and G. M. Hopkins, a pair of contemporary classical poets. I’d like to begin the study with T. S. Elliot, the famous poet whose very name sounds like a synonym to word â€Å"modernism†. Elliot was and is the personification of modernism, and images and verses from his poems are remembered even today, and integrated in today works of literature and fiction. One can remember Steven King’s â€Å"Dark Tower† saga where images of Elliot’s works resurface frequently – in fact, one of King’s volumes of that saga is called â€Å"The Waste Lands†, obviously inspired by Elliot’s . For example, Elliot’s â€Å"The Love Song of J. Alfred Prufrock† had brought us a vision of a man whose world had split in and around himself, a lost person in search of love which can only be destructive and formidable for him. Since he is confined in the abyss of his own consciousness, reality is merely some kind of emotional experience for him. He can still observe the world around him, but psychologically he is alone, in the waste lands of unfertility and spiritual emptiness. Prufrock (the epitome of Elliot himself, or the reader) lets his thoughts and sentiments drift off incoherently. The external world around him, to which he is so sardonic, reflects his inner world, deprived of spiritual serenity. As he cannot get involved in a dialogue with the external world, only through the dramatic monologue can Prufrock whisper his intention : Let us go then, you and I† (Norton Anthology of Modern Poetry, 242). Elliot wanted his hero (and the reader) to compare himself with a character of Dante’s â€Å"Inferno†. But while they are alike, their fates are different: While Guido has at least the courage to open up to Dante, Prufrock is too complacent and too inert to make that effort. His only confident can be his alter ego – a distorted reflection of himself in the mirror of outside world. He sees this person, and begs to him for unification – as if there can be an answer different from the one he gives himself†¦ Prufrock’s wisdom of the ages he seems to feel returns to him as cruel mockery. What, indeed, could be the meaning of â€Å"life, universe and everything† (D. Adams), if .. one, settling a pillow, or throwing off a shawl, And turning toward the window, should say: That is not it at all, That is not what I meant, at all. (Norton Anthology of Modern Poetry, 245). That Prufrocks mawkish and evasive nature is shattered is delineated in the last ten lines of the poem. As the recurrent images of and references to the sea (silent seas, mermaids, seagirls†) crop up more and more, Prufrocks self-evasion becomes more marked. His psychic para1yis culminates when he realizes that even the mermaids will not do him a favor by singing to him; thus, all his source of possible inspiration fades away. (Norton Anthology of Modern Poetry, 245). He has never rea1ly been a religious man: he cannot, thus, expect Christ to restore him to a potent life, as was Lazarus restored to his. It is no wonder that while Prufrock is felt to be an epitome to all society of his times – so brilliant and so exquisitely empty inside. In modern times, his words had been referenced to in mockery by one of the most horrible machines the human mind had ever invented, Blaine the Mono: â€Å"In the rooms the people come and go. But I doubt that any of them is talking of Michelangelo† (King). Elliot’s other masterpiece, Gerontion, depicts a dream of memory. While Prufrock is at least â€Å"here† (even if he is unsure of his own location in the world), Gerontion’s hero is the time itself, sifted through the sieve of human memory. The observer is neither here not there, but the remains of memory, the dregs of time are spread before him – an enchanting display, but meaningless essentially. Elliot seems to ask – would the dregs of our own memory, if spread before some stranger, mean as little to him as these remains of one’s time mean to us now? All Elliot’s images are dark, broody and disturbing. They imply to ask – is it all? Can there be anything else around us, or are we lost eternally in the world which wasn’t mean for us? And, as Elliot hadn’t answered that questions himself, each reader must substitute his own answers and test their validity on Elliot’s words of man, world and time. Hart Crane is other example of modernist poets, his images are less brooding than Elliot’s and more defined, but the power they wield over us is intensified by their hidden meanings, unseen at first glance. Crane’s â€Å"Black Tambourineâ€Å" reflects on author’s own experience of time spent with some negro workers in a cellar. But the cellar expands in author’s view to the size of the whole world, and its closed door becomes the famous wall of the three Biblical judgments – MENE, MENE, TEKEL, UPHARSIN: â€Å"numbered, weighed and found wanting†. All universe seems to be contained between â€Å"here and now† – the dark cellar with tambourine on the wall – and mystical â€Å"somewhere†, where all human hopes end as â€Å"carcass, quick with flies† (Black Tambourine). â€Å"At Melvilles Tomb† brings dark and melancholy beneath which a memory of forces lingers that were bright and vicious once before – before the Death took its toll, equaling the furious Ahab and unnamed sailor. The image of the sea is indefinite and vague too, for it can be perceived as deep grave, or Death itself, or Sea of Time which will eventually give endless calm to every living being. In all modernist poetry, the concept of such multipart images and veiled references was honed and detailed up to its perfection. Now this is an instrument which is frequently used in literature and other spheres of life, such as advertising, but in times of T. S. Elliot and H. Crane it was a powerful innovation with which readers were stunned literarily. To compare with modernist poetry of Elliot and Crane, classical works by T. Hardy and G. M. Hopkins are selected. The classical English poetry of Thomas Hardy is more structured both in rhythm and meaning than modernist examples of Elliot and Crane. His poetry can be called â€Å"methodic†, for he explains methodically the one symbol which forms a poem. He explains it, details it, brings it before our eyes in maddeningly realistic manner, until the reader not simply understands it, but is enthralled by its vision. â€Å"Neutral tones† brings us a vision of lost love which turned into deadliness – the blank neutrality which opposes love and joy and happiness of life. The feelings deepen further with each stanza – from tranquility to blankness, to melancholy, and finally to utter despair. The concluding stanza forms the moral of the poem, adding to the finality of the sentence – what is lost in time, can never be found again. â€Å"The Darkling Thrush† is an example of more hopeful vision. Dedicated to the coming century, it is full with dark images of definite meaning: the gate as the gate of a new age (or a new Century), frost and Winter as Death itself that comes to all, and the land becomes a body which dies together with Century, for its time has passed. But the mere voice of the thrush changes the picture, illuminating it with some inner light of â€Å"blessed Hope†. And, while the reader (as the man who stands at the gates) is yet unaware of a definite knowledge of that Good Sign that only the bird has, he still accepts the bird’s song as a sign that there is hope for the future. Poetry of Gerard Manley Hopkins is yet another example of what classics had to offer then. His images are as definite as Hardy’s, if somewhat more fluent, and the moral is present too in his poems. â€Å"Spring and Fall† shows Margaret – a young girl who had realized for the first time that all things in life change and eventually die, that life is not permanent. A child’s mind can grasp concepts at levels they are not aware of, and understand something without ever having it explained. It is simple because of the innocent way the child absorbs the life itself. As an adult, one can see a subject or idea in a completely different way by viewing it through the eyes of a child. In the poem, Margaret looks at death and understands it symbolically, through the death of leaves to her own imminent demise. â€Å"God’s Grandeur† is another example of short and conclusive classical poetry. The tension in scenes of man-made destruction, pictured with vivid detail, is intensified by alliteration. Disturbing images of oozing oil and ever-repeating trod of countless generations result in deep, uncontrolled fear. But the conclusion opposes all said before by references to never-ending nature and God as its creator and protector. It states to us that God will as surely brings life after death and resurrection after destruction, as each day he brings the morning light after the dark of night. From fear of Man to hope in God – that is the meaning of the poem in general. To conclude the work, one should remind that modernist poets had learned to use their images from classical poetry. But, taking the basic elements and images from their predecessors, their works had transcended from single pictures (or contented stories explained to reader part by part) to grandiose intertwined canvases, full of elements and colors, or bottomless abysses of veiled hints and allusions. Certainly, the works of classics had formed the foundation for these magnificent creations of modernist poets, and without them the whole modernism in English literature would not be able to exist or progress. Works Cited Abrams M. H. A Glossary of Literary Terms. New York: Holt, Rinehart and Wilson, 1941 Hardy, Thomas. Wessex poems and other verses. New York: Harper, 1898. Hopkins, Gerard Manley. Poems of Gerard Manley Hopkins. London: Humphrey Milford, 1918. King, Stephen. The Waste Lands. Donald M. Grant, Publisher, Inc, 1991. Simon, Marc. The Complete Poems of Hart Crane. New York: Liveright, 1986. The Norton Anthology of Modern Poetry. New York and London:W. W. Norton Company, 1988

Experience In Giving Oral Care

Experience In Giving Oral Care Reflection is the process of reviewing an experience in order to describe analyse, evaluate and so inform learning about practice (Reid 1993).This essay will reflect on the importance of; and the experience I gained whilst giving oral care on a student placement simulation using a reflective model. Jamieson et al (2002) believe mouth care is the use of a toothbrush and paste to help patients recover and reduce risk of infections, communicate better, eat more easily and maintain dignity. Yet, it is also a role which too often delegated to health care assistants. I chose this area to highlight its need and the scope of opportunities in learning it has provided in improving my skills in practice. There are different models of reflection one of which is Gibbs (1988). On this occasion, Gibbs model will be used as a framework in guiding me, because it focuses on different aspects of an experience and feelings, and exploiting it fully will be more appreciated. Description I was part of a placement simulation group which went to the multi-skills laboratory to practice mouth wash. I was assigned a colleague to brush his teeth using a toothbrush and paste. I put on gloves so as to prevent contamination with body fluid. Seeking his consent, I undertook a brief  visual assessment of  the health status of his mouth. I then put him in a comfortable position so as to tolerate the wash. Thereafter, I cleaned all-round the mouth, gums and tongue. I finished off with mouthwash. I treated  my partner as though he was physically unable to hold the brush himself  to scrub his own teeth, but he was able to communicate with me and was able to assist me in terms of spitting and gargling with water at the end of the procedure. Feelings My immediate concern was I had not brushed anyones teeth outside of my family before and hence, how my partner will behave (Dowling, 2006). Although alert and dignified, I felt in giving mouth care, both the carer and patient are put into a state of uncertainty, embarrassment, inadequacy and a sense of intrusiveness to their privacy (Lewis, 2006; Sturdy, 2007). I became helpless with his facial expression shown no trust in me. Rungapadiachy (1999) defines trust as being honest, open, sincere, supporting and dependable, genuine, warm and accepting. Our reaction put us on the high score scale of Millon (1994), Hesitating (Reticent) pattern of behaviour. In spite of my concerns, I felt comfortable in completing the task. Evaluation Reflecting on or in action is becoming a great learning tool This experience taught me that, oral care provides any nurse with an ideal opportunity to undertake a thorough physical, emotional and cognitive assessment of a patient (DOH, 2001). I was pleased to find that, no injuries were sustained as I checked mouth prior and after. Also, I was pleased my communication skills improved and the therapeutic relationship built up; and with the knowledge I got from supporting literature formed the foundation of my learning and practice. Burnard (2002) suggests that a learner is a passive recipient of received knowledge, and that learning through activity engages all of our senses. From his feedback, I understood feedback is an important learning tool. One crucial point to come from some recent research (Burke, 2009) is that many students do not know how to use feedback as many have never been taught how to do so. However, the experience highlights the complex problems I have to solve in practice and the provision of care needs to patients for whom I may not have had contact with before. Although this task caused me discomfort and added pressure in the short term, I realise that it was a very significant event in my studies. Analysis WHO (2010) describes a healthy mouth as being free of chronic mouth and facial pain; and helping patients/service users to meet their hygiene needs is a fundamental component of nursing care (Essence of Care, 2003). In 2007, 50% UK adults attended an NHS dentist. Older people in residential homes were at risk of infection, with infection identified in 80% of one study population (Holman et al, 2005). The care of a patients mouth forms an important component of assisting hygiene needs and yet is an aspect of practice which is not always afforded the attention it fully deserves (Evans, 2001).It is now clear that, mouth care is important and that, nurses have a role in assessing and maintaining it (Malkin, 2009). The task identified encouraging people to acknowledge their intuitive capacity helps them to appreciate their strengths and weaknesses (SWOT). Jasper (2003) regards SWOT analysis as getting to know ones self. The understanding of our skills and abilities and the awareness of where our limits lie is seen as crucial to being able to act as a professional practitioner. My confidence grew and got more interested, encouraging him to do as much as he could. Jackson and Mannix (2001) note that amount of interest the nurse shows in the learning needs of the student and the key role he or she plays in their achievement are essential to the students development. Conclusion I feel that the whole process went on smoothly. Caring for a patient requires a relationship and empathy. By developing collaborative relationship with patients, I can provide prompt and focused interventions which can limit illness. Nonetheless, it has raised awareness the effects of others on my practice. Action Plan At the moment, I read more books a day than practice. My aim is to be proactive in the future by promptly opening up through total participation and doing more practices on regular basis. I aim to develop the skill of emotional resilience to be able to deliver and receive any care or learning activity by keeping diaries of events and reflecting on them. Conclusion My belief now is brushing teeth loosens and removes debris trapped in the spaces and prevents the growth of plaque which habours bacteria and that; nurses have a role to play in mouth care. Due to my lack of experience in care and the job title of student nurse, I perceived that most sessions would run in a lecture format. I now believe practical skills development using reflection is as important as lecture tuition although, Quinn (2000) believes most students and many professionals note that learning acquired from placement experience is much more meaningful and relevant than that acquired in the lecture room. The process of learning I went through is more complex than Gibbs suggests. It is not as cyclical as this model implies and I found myself jumping or combining some stages, before coming back. However, it has taken me out of my comfort zone, challenging my thinking.

LRNA - Company Profile :: essays research papers

1.  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Industry History & Current Overview Since the invention of the Ford’s Model T, the modern automobile industry has been manufacturing affordable automobiles for everyone in the U.S. The age of design of cars boomed as people started to demand more customization of their cars (Model T only came black). This began the shift from manufacturing-driven automobile to a more design-driven automobile. The Sport Utility Vehicle (SUV) emerged in the 1990s based on the negative image of the minivan, which was developed throughout the 1980s on a bland and purely functional platform. In 1996, the Ford Motor Company began building the Expedition, its new, full-sized SUV in Michigan. The Expedition was essentially the F-150 pickup truck (the best selling pick-up truck) with an extra set of doors and two more rows of seats. Ford marketed the SUV at a ticket price of thirty-six thousand dollars. The average cost to build these trucks was no more than twenty-four thousand dollar, and in the automobile industry, this is a high-profit margin. By the late 1990s, the SUV market has become the most profitable in the automobile industry. The move toward a more aggressively styled and higher riding vehicles have caused unintended consequences and risks. The risks include decreased â€Å"drivability†, obstruction of vision, and concerns surrounding safety. Current trends in vehicle design focus on addressing these problems to achieve appealing designs with the best qualities of both cars and trucks, as seen in all the new designs from the Land Rover. 2004 will be remembered as a pivotal year in the automobile industry. It was a year in which high gasoline prices started a sea change among U.S. consumers that will finally create significant demand for fuel-efficient vehicles. Gasoline prices of $2.00+ per gallon started taking a huge bite out of family budgets, and many middle-class consumers who own fuel guzzling SUVs and pickup trucks began to wish they had vehicles that were much less expensive to operate. Demand for hybrid cars (ie. Toyota Prius) was so high that many customers had to wait six months or longer to get there car. Other carmakers, including Ford and GM, saw the opportunity and introduced their own brand of hybrid vehicles to market. Ford launched its first hybrid: a small SUV. Other fuel-efficient vehicles, such as BMW’s MINI Cooper, also enjoyed soaring demand. Meanwhile, sales of heavy SUVs lagged miserably, and automakers such as Chevy, Hummer and Cadillac offered unprecedented dealer incentives and rebates in an effort to move these vehicles, Land Rover Range Rover has increased due to efficient newly designed models as shown from the stats below.

The Necessity Of Japanese Internment :: essays research papers fc

FYI (This is a biased written paper written if one were to defend Japanese Internment) The Necessity of Japanese Internment   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Much controversy has been sparked due to the internment of the Japanese people. Many ask whether it was justified to internment them. It is a very delicate issue that has two sides, those who are against the internment of the Japanese-Americans and those who are for it. With World War II raging in the East, America was still, for the most part, very inactive in the war. When America took a stand against Japan by not shipping them supplies, Japan became very upset. Japan, being a big island that is very overpopulated with little natural resources, depended on America to provide them with an assortment of supplies including scrap metal and oil, vital items that are needed in a time of war. Japan retaliated by declaring war on America and attacking Pearl Harbor. This surprise act led to many soldiers deaths and millions of dollars of damaged army equipment, including air craft carriers and planes. As a result to Japan declaring war, the Japanese-Americans were asked to and eventually forced to do their duty to the country and report to internment camps until the war conflict was over. Many opposed this act for a couple of reasons. One reason was that people felt that it was a huge hypocrisy that the Japanese were being interned while the Italians and Germans, also our enemies, were still walking around free in America. Another reason why many were against the internment was because many of the Japanese had already been in America for some time now. The Issei, the first generation of Japanese people that immigrated from Japan, had immigrated many years ago. A whole another generation of Japanese children had already began growing up in America called the Nissei. They were automatically U.S. citizens for they were born in America and for the most part were like other American children. Anti-Internment activists also said that the Japanese were being robbed of their rights as U.S. citizens. However, there are two sides to everything.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  There are a number of reasons why the internment of the Japanese people had to take place. Japan was a major threat to the United States which made anyone of Japanese descendent a potential traitor and threat to America’s security. No one was quite sure what they were capable of.

National Honor Society Paper

National Honor Society is known for having extraordinary students whom possess strong leadership, constant determination, and also structured character. Though there are various students who have what it takes to become a member of the National Honor Society I feel that I should be one of them. From the beginning of my Freshmen year, I had a strong desire to find my path early in life and choose a career I would like to pursue as time went on.Realizing my passion for shopping was just the beginning, and though most girls all have this love for clothes I saw it differently, and began to explore the fashion industry by researching and reading up on the latest news. The electives I took in 9th grade, which were studio and art and fashion illustration both had a large impact on my future and also provoked my desire and curiosity for the artistic side of the fashion world.Getting very high grades in these courses made me acknowledge my ability to draw and learn how to sketch fashion desig ns and learn about the career of illustration in fashion, giving me more confidence in choosing my direction in this field. As my sophomore year began, I explored a different side of the fashion industry and enrolled myself in fashion marketing and also fashion apparel and accessories, but also stuck to the arts by taking drawing. In my fashion apparel and accessories class my teacher privately selected 6 people from the class to partner up in twos and compete in the famous DECA competition.Out of three hundred people, my partner and I competed in advertising and placed honorable mention. This showed that out of all those people my partner and I’s work paid off, and my teacher found us to be unique among our class. Because of my teacher Ms. Ehrhardt and also my fashion illustration/ art teachers Mrs. Copolla and Ms. Syska I became extremely inspired to do something about my newfound passion and sign up for FIT’s precollege workshop classes to gain better experience of this fashion world I was ready to journey into.That march until may of 10th grade every Saturday I would independently take the train in early and attend three-hour fashion classes, sewing and an introduction to the fashion industry and take the train home late. The privilege of being in the city on my own helped me develop a significant understanding of myself and who I wanted to be, and the opportunity of taking these classes transformed me into a more social and friendly person. I became much more understanding to the structure of the basis of fashion and felt that though I loved the classes, I wanted to xplore other courses they had in order to expand my interests of fashion as a whole. In the summer I decided to spend most of my time in the city for fashion and took more classes at FIT and also LIM college to assure myself in which area of fashion I wanted to be in. The classes I took in 10th grade at FIT were design classes, but I felt that my abilities would have a larger pos sibility for success in merchandising. The summer FIT class I took was for public relations and I got the chance to visit various museums and also real fashion design floors to become truly involved in the industry.From here, I knew this was the area I wanted to be involved in and believed I would excel in. At LIM, I spent a week in the city with a roommate and dormed while I took a class for fabric styling and fashion magazine during the day. These two classes gave me a lot to offer, from the learning to the activities I became a leader of my own fashion shoot and also got to interview people in fashion, which left me such an empowering feeling.Though the dorms seem to be only temporary living quarters, I was fortunate enough to taste true independence and individuality; making me very excited to take on future challenges life would give me. Into 11th grade I pursued this path of taking fashion classes in the city, and took fashion marketing classes in. From all the hard work and d etermination In these classes through out high school, I was rewarded with high grades, which are hard to obtain in these courses. I also stood out because I was interviewed and placed upon the FIT website itself, under â€Å"who’s in precollege? (When you apply for a course) which holds the information and pictures of a handful of unique and stylish individuals. All of my fashion experiences as a whole have built me into the hardworking, determined, independent individual I am now and I am very proud that was able to achieve these aspects in order to reach my goal of being apart of the fashion industry. I also feel that this has made me eligible and also worthy of becoming a member of the National Honor Society who’s character will be beneficial towards this society.

Budget Process

A. THE BUDGET PREPARATION PROCESS OBJECTIVES OF BUDGET PREPARATION During budget preparation, trade-offs and prioritization among programs must be made to ensure that the budget fits government policies and priorities. Next, the most cost-effective variants must be selected. Finally, means of increasing operational efficiency in government must be sought. None of these can be accomplished unless financial constraints are built into the process from the very start. Accordingly, the budget formulation process has four major dimensions:1 †¢Setting up the fiscal targets and the level of expenditures compatible with these targets. This is the objective of preparing the macro-economic framework. †¢ Formulating expenditure policies. †¢ Allocating resources in conformity with both policies and fiscal targets. This is the main objective of the core processes of budget preparation. †¢ Addressing operational efficiency and performance issues. This chapter focuses on the core processes of budget preparation, and on mechanisms for aggregate expenditure control and strategic allocation of esources. Efficiency and performance issues are discussed in chapter 15. Operational efficiency questions directly related to the arrangements for budget preparation are discussed in Section D below. B. THE IMPORTANCE OF A MEDIUM-TERM PERSPECTIVE FOR BUDGETING The need to address all three objectives of public expenditure management–fiscal discipline, strategic resource allocation, and operational efficiency—is emphasized in chapter 1. This calls for a link between policy and budgeting and for a perspective beyond the immediate future.Of course, the future is inherently uncertain, and the more so the longer the period considered. The general trade-off is between policy relevance and certainty. At one extreme, government â€Å"budgeting† for just the following week would suffer the least uncertainty but also be almost irrelevant as an instrument of po licy. At the other extreme, budgeting for a period of too many years would provide a broad context but carry much greater uncertainty as well. 2 In practice, â€Å"multiyear† means â€Å"medium-term,† i. e. , a perspective covering three to five years including the budget year.Clearly, the feasibility in practice of a multiyear perspective is greater when revenues are predictable and the mechanisms for controlling expenditure well- developed. (The U. K. , for example, has recently moved beyond a multiyear perspective to an outright three-year budget for most budgetary accounts. ) These conditions do not exist in many developing countries. 3, The dilemma is that a multiyear perspective is especially important in those countries where a clear sense of policy direction is a must for sustainable development, and public managers are often in sore need of some predictability and flexibility. The dilemma that a multiyear perspective is especially needed where it is least feas ible cannot be resolved easily, but must not be ignored. On the one hand, to try and extend the time horizon of the budget process under conditions of severe revenue uncertainty and weak expenditure control would merely lead to frequent changes in ceilings and appropriations, quickly degenerate into a formalistic exercise, and discredit the approach itself, thus compromising later attempts at improvement.On the other hand, to remain wedded to narrow short-term â€Å"management† of public expenditure would preclude a move to improved linkage between policies and expenditures. In practice, therefore, efforts should constantly be exerted to improve revenue forecasting (through such means as relieving administrative or political pressures for overoptimistic forecasts), and strengthen the linkages between policy formulation and expenditure, as well as the expenditure control mechanisms themselves. As and when these efforts yield progress, the time horizon for budget preparation ca n and should be lengthened. Because revenue-forecasting mprovements and the strengthening of policy-expenditure links and expenditure control mechanisms are important in any event, efforts to achieve these can yield the double benefit of improving the short-term budget process at the same time as they permit expanding the budget time horizon to take account of developmental priorities. Therefore, although in almost all countries government budgets are prepared on an annual cycle, to be formulated well they must take into account events outside the annual cycle, in particular the macroeconomic realities, the expected revenues, the longer-term costs of programs, and government policies.Wildavsky (1986, p. 317) sums up the arguments against isolated annual budgeting as follows: short-sightedness, because only the next year’s expenditures are reviewed; overspending, because huge disbursements in future years are hidden; conservatism, because incremental changes do not open up lar ge future vistas; and parochialism, because programs tend to be viewed in isolation rather than in comparison to their future costs in relation to expected revenue. Specifically, the annual budget must reflect three paramount multiannual considerations: The future recurrent costs of capital expenditures; †¢ The funding needs of entitlement programs (for example debt service and transfer payments) where expenditure levels may change, even though basic policy remains the same; †¢ Contingencies that may result in future spending requirements (for example government loan guarantees (see chapter 2). A medium-term outlook is necessary because the time span of an annual budget is too short for the purpose of adjusting expenditure priorities and uncertainties become too great over the longer term.At the time the budget is formulated, most of the expenditures of the budget year have already been committed. For example, the salaries of permanent civil servants, the pensions to be pa id to retirees, debt service costs, and the like, are not variable in the short term. Other costs can be adjusted, but often only marginally. The margin of maneuver is typically no more than 5 percent of total expenditure. This means that any real adjustment of expenditure priorities, if it is to be successful, has to take place over a time span of several years.For instance, the government may wish to switch from blanket provision of welfare services to targeted provision designed for those most in need. The expenditure implications of such a policy change stretch over several years, and the policy therefore can hardly be implemented through a blinkered focus on the annual budget. Medium-term spending projections are also necessary to demonstrate to the administration and the public the desired direction of change.In the absence of a medium-term program, rapid spending adjustments to reflect changing circumstances will tend to be across-the-board and ad hoc, focused on inputs and a ctivities that can be cut in the short term. (Often, these are important public investment expenditures, and one of the typical outcomes of annual budgeting under constrained circumstances is to define public investment in effect as a mere residual. ) If the expenditure adjustments are not policy-based, they will not be sustained.By illuminating the expenditure implications of current policy decisions on future years’ budgets, medium-term spending projections enable governments to evaluate costeffectiveness and to determine whether they are attempting more than they can afford. 5 Finally, in purely annual budgeting, the link between sectoral policies and budget allocations is often weak. Sector politicians announce policies, but the budget often fails to provide the necessary resources. However, two pitfalls should be avoided. First, a multiyear expenditure approach can tself be an occasion to develop an evasion strategy, by pushing expenditure off to the out-years. Second, i t could lead to claims for increased expenditures from line ministries, since new programs are easily transformed into â€Å"entitlements† as soon as they are included in the projections. To avoid these two pitfalls, many developed countries have limited the scope of their multiyear expenditures estimates to the cost of existing programs, without making room for new programs. †6 Three variants of medium-term year expenditure programming can be considered: †¢A mere â€Å"technical† projection of the forward costs of ongoing programs (including, of course, the recurrent costs of investments). †¢ A â€Å"stringent† planning approach, consisting of: (i) programming savings in nonpriority sectors over the planned period, to leave room for higherpriority programs; but (ii) including in the multiyear program ongoing programs and only those new programs that are included in the annual budget currently under preparation or for which financing is certain. Such plans include only a few new projects beyond their first planned year (e. g. the Public Investment Program prepared in Sri Lanka until 1998). †¢ The â€Å"classic† planning approach, which identifies explicitly new programs and their cost over the entire period. This includes â€Å"development plans† covering all expenditures, or many public investment programs currently prepared in several developing countries, as well as expenditure plans prepared in developed countries in the 1970s. Where the institutional mechanisms for sound policy decision making and for budgeting are not in place, this approach can lead to overloaded expenditure programs.The feasibility of implementing these different approaches and their linkages with the annual budget depends on the capacity and institutional context of the specific country. However, the annual budget should always be placed into some kind of multiyear perspective, even where formal multiyear expenditure programming is not feasible. For this purpose two activities are a must: (i) systematic estimates of the forward costs of ongoing programs, when reviewing the annual budget requests from line ministries; (ii) aggregate expenditure estimates consistent with the medium-term macroeconomic framework (see section C).It is often objected that estimating forward costs is difficult, especially for recurrent costs of new public investment projects. This is true, but irrelevant, for without such estimates budgeting is reduced to a short sighted and parochial exercise. [Please see attached Figure 4. xls] C. CONDITIONS FOR SOUND BUDGET PREPARATION In addition to a multiyear perspective, sound annual budget preparation calls for making early decisions and for avoiding a number of questionable practices. 1. The need for early decisions By definition, preparing the budget entails hard choices.These can be made, at a cost, or avoided, at a far greater cost. It is important that the necessary trade-offs be made explicitly when formulating the budget. This will permit a smooth implementation of priority programs, and avoid disrupting program management during budget execution. Political considerations, the avoidance mechanisms mentioned below, and lack of needed information (notably on continuing commitments), often lead to postponing these hard choices until budget execution. The postponement makes the choices harder, not easier, and the consequence is a less efficient budget process.When revenues are overestimated and the impact of continuing commitments is underestimated, sharp cuts must be made in expenditure when executing the budget. Overestimation of revenue can come from technical factors (such as a bad appraisal of the impact of a change in tax policy or of increased tax expenditures), but often also from the desire of ministries to include or maintain in the budget an excessive number of programs, while downplaying difficulties in financing them. Similarly, while underestimation of expenditures can come from unrealistic assessments of the cost of unfunded liabilities (e. g. enefits granted outside the budget) or the impact of permanent obligations, it can also be a deliberate tactic to launch new programs, with the intention of requesting increased appropriations during budget execution. It is important not to assume that â€Å"technical† improvements can by themselves resolve institutional problems of this nature. An overoptimistic budget leads to accumulation of payment arrears and muddles rules for compliance. Clear signals on the amount of expenditure compatible with financial constraints should be given to spending agencies at the start of the budget preparation process.As will be stressed repeatedly in this volume, it is possible to execute badly a realistic budget, but impossible to execute well an unrealistic budget. There are no satisfactory mechanisms to correct the effects of an unrealistic budget during budget execution. Thus, across-the- board appropriation â€Å"sequestering† leads to inefficiently dispersing scarce resources among an excessive number of activities. Selective cash rationing politicizes budget execution, and often substitutes supplier priorities for program priorities.Selective appropriation sequestering combined with a mechanism to regulate commitments partly avoids these problems, but still creates difficulties, since spending agencies lack predictability and time to adjust their programs and their commitments. An initially higher, but more realistic, fiscal deficit target is far preferable to an optimistic target based on overestimated revenues, or underestimated existing expenditure commitments, which will lead to payment delays and arrears. The monetary impact is similar, but arrears create their own inefficiencies and destroy government credibility as well. This is a strong argument in favor of measuring the fiscal deficit on a â€Å"commitment basis†, see chapter 6. ) To allevia te problems generated by overoptimistic budgets, it is often suggested that a â€Å"core program† within the budget be isolated and higher priority given to this program during budget implementation. In times of high uncertainty of available resources (e. g. , very high inflation), this approach could possibly be considered as a secondbest response to the situation. However, it has little to recommend it as general practice, and is vastly inferior to the obvious alternative of a realistic budget to begin with.When applied to current expenditures, the â€Å"core program† typically includes personnel expenditures, while the â€Å"noncore program† includes a percentage of goods and services. Cuts in the â€Å"noncore† program during budget execution would tend to increase inefficiency, and reduce further the meager operations and maintenance budget in most developing countries. The â€Å"core/noncore† approach is ineffective also when applied to inves tment expenditures, since it is difficult to halt a project that is already launched, even when it is â€Å"non-core. Indeed, depending on strong political support, noncore projects may in practice chase out core projects. (See chapter 12 for a discussion of public investment programming. ) 2. The need for a hard constraint Giving a hard constraint to line ministries from the beginning of budget preparation favors a shift from a â€Å"needs† mentality to an availability mentality. As discussed in detail later in this chapter, annual budget preparation must be framed within a sound macroeconomic framework, and should be organized along the following lines: †¢A top-down approach, consisting of: (i) defining aggregate resources available for public spending; (ii) establishing sectoral spending limits that fits government priorities; and (iii) making these spending limits known to line ministries; †¢ A bottom-up approach, consisting of formulating and costing sectoral spending programs within the sectoral spending limits; and †¢ Iteration and reconciliation mechanisms, to produce a constant overall expenditure program. Although the process must be tailored to each country, it is generally desirable to start with the top-down approach.Implementation of this approach is always necessary for good budgeting, regardless of the time period covered. The technical articulation of this approach in the context of medium-term expenditure programming is discussed in chapter 13, for the annual budget. 3. Avoiding questionable budgeting practices Certain budgetary practices are widespread but inconsistent with sound budgeting. The main ones are: â€Å"incremental budgeting,† â€Å"open-ended† processes, â€Å"excessive bargaining,† and â€Å"dual budgeting. † a. Incremental budgetingLife itself is incremental. And so, in part, is the budget process, since it has to take into account the current context, continuing policies, and ongoing programs. Except when a major â€Å"shock† is required, most structural measures can be implemented only progressively. Carrying out every year a â€Å"zero-based† budgeting exercise covering all programs would be an expensive illusion. At the other extreme, however, â€Å"incremental budgeting,† understood as a mechanical set of changes in a detailed line-item budget, leads to very poor results.The dialogue between the Ministry of Finance and line ministries is confined to reviewing the different items and to bargaining cuts or increases, item by item. Discussions focus solely on inputs, without any reference to results, between a Ministry of Finance typically uninformed about sectoral realities and a sector ministry in a negotiating mode. Worse, the negotiation is seen as a zero-sum game, and usually not approached by either party in good faith. Moreover, incremental budgeting of this sort is not even a good tool for expenditure control, although this was the initial aim of this approach.Line-item incremental budgeting focuses generally on goods and services expenditures, whereas the â€Å"budget busters† are normally entitlements, subsidies, hiring or wage policy or, in many developing countries, expenditure financed with counterpart funds from foreign aid. Even the most mechanical and inefficient forms of incremental budgeting, however, are not quite as bad as capricious large swings in budget allocations in response to purely political power shifts. b. â€Å"Open-ended† processes An open-ended budget preparation process starts from requests made by spending agencies without clear indications of financial constraints.Since these requests express only â€Å"needs,† in the aggregate they invariably exceed the available resources. Spending agencies have no incentive to propose savings, since they have no guarantee that any such savings will give them additional financial room to undertake new activities. New programs are included pell-mell in sectoral budget requests as bargaining chips. Lacking information on the relative merits of proposed expenditures, the Ministry of Finance is led to making arbitrary cuts across the board among sector budget proposals, usually at the last minute when finalizing the budget.At best, a few days before the deadline for presenting the draft budget to the Cabinet, the Ministry of Finance gives firm directives to line ministries, which then redraft their requests hastily, themselves making cuts across the board in the programs of their subordinate agencies. Of course, these cuts are also arbitrary, since the ministries have not had enough time to reconsider their previous budget requests. Further bargaining then taxes place during the review of the budget at the cabinet level, or even during budget execution. â€Å"Open ended† processes are sometimes justified as a â€Å"decentralized† approach to budgeting.Actually, they are the very opposi te. Since the total demand by the line ministries is inevitably in excess of available resources, the Ministry of Finance in fact has the last word in deciding where increments should be allocated and whether reallocations should be made. The less constrained the process, the greater is the excess of aggregate ministries’ request over available resources, the stronger the role of the central Ministry of Finance in deciding the composition of sectoral programs, and the more illusory the â€Å"ownership† of the budget by line ministries. . Excessive bargaining and conflict avoidance There is always an element of bargaining in any budget preparation, as choices must be made among conflicting interests. An â€Å"apolitical† budget process is an oxymoron. However, when bargaining drives the process, the only predictable result is inefficiency of resource allocation. Choices are based more on the political power of the different actors than on facts, integrity, or res ults. Instead of transparent budget appropriations, false compromises are reached, such as increased tax expenditures, reation of earmarked funds, loans, or increased contingent liabilities. A budget preparation process dominated by bargaining can also favor the emergence of escape mechanisms and a shift of key programs outside the budget. 7 A variety of undesirable compromises are used to avoid internal bureaucratic conflicts—spreading scarce funds among an excessive number of programs in an effort to satisfy everybody, deliberately overestimating revenues, underestimating continuing commitments, postponing hard choices until budget execution, inflating expenditures in the second year of a multiyear expenditure program, etc.These conflict-avoidance mechanisms are frequent in countries with weak cohesion within the government. Consequently, improved processes of policy formulation can have benefits for budget preparation as well, through the greater cohesion generated in the government. 8 Conflict avoidance may characterize not only the relationships between the Ministry of Finance and line ministries, but also those between line ministries and their subordinate agencies.Indeed, poor cohesion within line ministries is often used by the Ministry of Finance as a justification for its leading role in determining the composition of sectoral programs. Perversely, therefore, the all-around bad habits generated by â€Å"open-ended† budget preparation processes may reduce the incentive of the Ministry of Finance itself to push for real improvements in the system. d. â€Å"Dual budgeting† There is frequent confusion between the separate presentation of current and investment budgets, and the issue of the process by which those two budgets are prepared.The term â€Å"dual budgeting† is often used to refer to either the first or the second issue. However, as discussed earlier, a separate presentation is needed. â€Å"Dual budgeting† ref ers therefore only to a dual process of budget preparation, whereby the responsibility for preparing the investment or development budget is assigned to an entity different from the entity that prepares the current budget. â€Å"Dual budgeting† was aimed initially at establishing appropriate mechanisms for giving higher priority to development activity.Alternatively, it was seen as the application of a â€Å"golden rule† which would require balancing the recurrent budget and borrowing only for investment. In many developing countries, the organizational arrangements that existed before the advent of the PIP approach in the 1980s (see chapter 12) typically included a separation of budget responsibilities between the key core ministries. The Ministry of Finance was responsible for preparing the recurrent budget; the Ministry of Planning was responsible for the annual development budget and for medium-term planning.The two entities carried out their responsibilities separ ately on the basis of different criteria, different staff, different bureaucratic dynamics, and, usually, different ideologies. In some cases, at the end of the budget preparation cycle, the Ministry of Finance would simply collate the two budgets into a single document that made up the â€Å"budget. † Clearly, such a practice impedes the integrated review of current and investment expenditures that is necessary in any good budget process. (For xample, the Ministry of Education will program separately its school construction program and its running costs and try to get the maximum resources for both, while not considering variants that would consist of building fewer schools and buying more books. ) In many cases, coordination between the preparation of the recurrent budget and the development budget is poor not only between core ministries but within the line ministries as well. While the Ministry of Finance deals with the financial department of line ministries, the Ministr y of Planning deals with their investment department.This duality may even be reproduced at subnational levels of government. Adequate coordination is particularly difficult because the spending units responsible for implementing the recurrent budget are administrative divisions, while the development budget is implemented through projects, which may or may not report systematically to their relevant administrative division. (In a few countries, while current expenditures are paid from the Treasury, development expenditures are paid through a separate Development Fund. ) The introduction of rolling PIPs was motivated partly by a desire to correct these problems. Thus, the crux of the â€Å"dual budgeting† issue is the lack of integration of different expenditures contributing to the same policy objectives. This real issue has been clouded, however, by a superficial attribution of deep-seated problems to the â€Å"technical† practice of dual-budgeting. For example, dual budgeting is sometimes held responsible for an expansionary bias in government expenditure. Certainly, as emphasized earlier, the initial dual budgeting paradigm was related to a growth model (Harrod-Domar et al) based on a mechanistic relation between the level of investment and GDP growth.This paradigm itself has unquestionably been a cause of public finance overruns and the debt crises inherited in Africa or Latin America from badquality investment â€Å"programs† of the 1970s and early 1980s. The implicit disregard for issues of implementation capacity, or efficiency of investment, or mismanagement, corruption and theft, is in hindsight difficult to understand. However, imputing to dual budgeting all problems of bad management or weak governance and corruption is equally simplistic and misleading.Given the same structural, capacity, and political conditions of those years (including the Cold War), the same outcome of wasteful, and often corrupt, expansion of government s pending would have resulted in developing countries—dual budgeting or not. If only the massive economic mismanagement in so many countries in the 1970s and early 1980s could be explained by a single and comforting â€Å"technical† problem of budgetary procedure! In point of fact, the fiscal overruns of the 1970s and early 1980s had little to do with the visible dual budgeting.They originated instead from a third invisible budget: â€Å"black boxes,† uncontrolled external borrowing, military expenditures, casual guarantees to public enterprises, etc. 10 Public investment budgeting is submitted to strong pressures because of particular or regional interest (the so-called pork barrel projects) and because it gives more opportunities for corruption than current expenditures. 11 Thus, in countries with poor governance, there are vested interests in keeping separate the process of preparing the investment budget, and a tendency to increase public investment spending.H owever, under the same circumstances, to concentrate power and bribe opportunities in the hands of a powerful â€Å"unified-budget† baron would hardly improve expenditure management or reduce corruption. On the contrary, it is precisely in these countries that focusing first on improving the integrity of the separate investment programming process may be the only way to assure that some resources are allocated to economically sound projects and to improve over time the budget process as a whole. 12 By contrast, in countries without major governance weaknesses, dual budgeting ften results in practice in insulating current expenditures (and especially salaries) from structural adjustment. Given the macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts and objectives, the resources allocated to public investment have typically been a residual, estimated by deducting recurrent expenditure needs from the expected amount of revenues (given the overall deficit target). The residual character of the do mestic funding of development expenditures may even be aggravated during the process of budget execution, when urgent current spending preempts investment spending which can be postponed more easily.In such a situation, dual budgeting yields the opposite problem: unmet domestic investment needs and insufficient counterpart funds for good projects financed on favorable external terms. Insufficient aggregate provision of counterpart funds (which is itself a symptom of a bad investment budgeting process) is a major source of waste of resources. Recall that the real issue is lack of integration between investment and current expenditure programming, and not the separate processes in themselves.This is important, because to misspecify the issue would lead (and often has) to considering the problem solved by a simple merger of two ministries—even while coordination remains just as weak. A former minister becomes a deputy minister, organizational â€Å"boxes† are reshuffled, a few people are promoted and others demoted. But dual budgeting remains alive and well within the bosom of the umbrella ministry. When coordination between two initially separate processes is close and iteration effective, the two budgets end up consistent with each other and with government policies, and â€Å"dual budgeting† is no great problem.Thus, when the current and investment budget processes are separate, whether or not they should be unified depends on the institutional characteristics of the country. In countries where the agency responsible for the investment budget is weak, and the Ministry of Finance is not deeply involved in ex-ante line-item control and day-to-day management, transferring responsibilities for the investment budget to the Ministry of Finance would tend to improve budget preparation as a whole. (Whether this option is preferable to the alternative of trengthening the agency responsible for the investment budget can be decided only on a country- specific basis. ) In other countries, one should first study carefully the existing processes and administrative capacities. For example, when the budgetary system is strongly oriented toward ex-ante controls, the capacity of the Ministry of Finance to prepare and manage a development budget may be inadequate. A unified budget process would in this case risk dismantling the existing network of civil servants who prepare the investment budget, without adequate replacement.Also, as noted, coordination problems may be as severe between separate departments of a single ministry as between separate ministries. Indeed, the lack of coordination within line ministries between the formulation of the current budget and the formulation of the capital budget is in many ways the more important dual budgeting issue. Without integration or coordination of current and capital expenditure at line the ministries’ level, integration or coordination at the core ministry level is a misleading ill usion.On balance, however, the general presumption should be in favor of a single entity responsible for both the investment and the annual budget (although that entity must possess the different skills and data required for the two tasks): Where coherence is at a premium, where any consistent policy may be better than several that cancel each other out, where layers of bureaucracy already frustrate each other, and where a single budget hardly works, choosing two budgets and two sets of officials over one seems strange. The keynote in poor countries should be simplicity.Designs for decisions should be as simple as anyone knows how to make them. The more complicated they are, the less likely they are to work. On this basis, there seems little reason to have several organizations dealing with the same expenditure policies. One good organization would represent an enormous advance. Moreover, choosing the finance ministry puts the burden of reform where it should be—in the budget ary sphere. 13 D. THE MACROECONOMIC AND POLICY CONTEXT 1. Macroeconomic framework and fiscal targets a. Importance of a macroeconomic frameworkThe starting points for expenditure programming are: (i) a realistic assessment of resources likely to be available to the government; and (ii) the establishment of fiscal objectives. (There follows, of course, significant iteration between the two, until the desired relationship between resources and objectives is reached. ) As noted earlier, the capacity to translate policy priorities into the budget, and then to ensure conformity of actual expenditures with the budget, depends in large part on the soundness of macroeconomic projections and revenue forecasts.Overestimating revenues leads to poor budget formulation and therefore poor budget execution. (As mentioned earlier, this may sometimes be a deliberate ploy to evade the responsibility for weak budget management and discipline. ) The preparation of a macroeconomic framework is therefore an essential element in the budget preparation process. Macroeconomic projections are not simple forecasts of trends of macroeconomic variables. Projections are based on a definition of argets and instruments, in areas such as monetary policy, fiscal policy, exchange rate and trade policy, external debt policy, regulation and promotion of private-sector activities, and reform of public enterprises. For example, the policy objective of reducing inflation normally corresponds to targets such as the level of the deficit, and the specific instruments can include tax measures and credit policy measures, among others. 14 Projections should cover the current year and a forward period of two to four years. b.Fiscal targets and indicators The establishment of explicit fiscal targets gives a framework for budget formulation, allows the government to state clearly its fiscal policy and the legislative and the public to monitor the implementation of government policy, and, ultimately, makes go vernment politically as well as financially accountable. Fiscal targets and indicators should cover three areas: current fiscal position (e. g. , fiscal deficit), fiscal sustainability (e. g. , debt-, tax-, or expenditure-to-GDP ratios), and vulnerability (e. . , analysis of the composition of the foreign debt). The summary indicator of fiscal position used most commonly is the overall budget deficit on a cash basis, defined as the difference between actual expenditure payments and collected revenues (on a cash basis) plus grants (cash or in kind). 15 The cash deficit is by definition equal to the government borrowing requirements (from domestic or foreign sources) and is thus integrally linked to the money supply and inflation targets and prospects.The deficit is therefore a major policy target to ensure that the budget will be financed in a noninflationary way and without crowding out private investment, while keeping the growth of public debt under control. The cash deficit must always be included in the set of fiscal targets. The cash deficit does not take into account payment arrears and floating debt. In countries that face arrears problems the deficit on a cash basis plus net increase of arrears is also an important indicator, and is very similar (but not necessarily identical) to the deficit on a commitment basis, i. e. the difference between annual expenditure commitments and cash revenues and grants. 16 The IMF Code of Fiscal Transparency requires at least a memorandum reporting arrears, when the country does not use accrual or modified accrual accounting (which would systematically generate reports on overdue accounts; see chapter 10). As discussed in chapter 6, the precise definition of commitment varies from one 17 country to another . Commitments include orders not yet delivered, may concern multiyear contracts, or, in some countries, be only the administrative reservation of appropriations.Therefore, when using the deficit on a commitment basis as fiscal indicator, it is necessary to specify what transactions are included in the expenditures on a commitment basis. This indicator would be meaningless if it includes multiyear commitments and commitments that are merely reservations of appropriations. Moreover, to estimate arrears more accurately, orders not yet delivered should be separated from actual expenditures (â€Å"accrued expenditures,† or â€Å"expenditures at the verification stage†). As discussed in chapters 6 and 10, this requires an adequate accounting system for tracking the uses of appropriations.The primary deficit (on either a cash or a commitment basis) is the difference between noninterest expenditures and revenues and grants. As a target for budget policy, it does not depend on the vagaries of interest rates and exchange rates, and is therefore a better measure of the government’s fiscal adjustment effort. In high-inflation countries, to take into account the impact of inflation on th e stock of debt, a frequent indicator is the operational deficit, which is equal to the deficit on a cash basis less the inflationary portion of interest payment. 18The current deficit is the difference between current revenue and current expenditure. It is by definition, the â€Å"government saving,† and thus, in theory, the contribution of government to investible resources and economic growth. However, since the current spending of a government may be as important for growth as capital spending, the macroeconomic meaning of this indicator should be interpreted with care. Depending on the circumstances, it may also be necessary to isolate once and for all the fiscal results from other operations, as, for instance, the sale of public assets, or a special recovery of tax arrears. 9 [Please see attached Table 2. xls] It is essential to underline that the broad objective of fiscal policy is not a specific level of deficit, per se, but a fiscal position that is sustainable in li ght of policy goals and likely resource availability. Indicators of fiscal sustainability include the ratio of debt to GDP, tax to GDP, net unfunded social security liabilities. The calculation of the deficit on an accrual basis and the assessment of the net worth of the government allows a etter assessment of liabilities and therefore their impact on sustainability (see chapter 10). However, huge movements in net worth can be caused by valuation changes in assets such as land, that the government has no immediate intention of liquidating. Hence, â€Å"net worth measures could be dangerous if used as indicators for near-term fiscal policy. â€Å"20 An assessment of fiscal vulnerability is also needed, especially in countries that benefit from short-term capital inflows.Especially relevant to Asian countries affected by the financial crisis that began in 1997; such an assessment could be based on the analysis of the maturity of government debt, the volume of usable foreign exchange reserves, etc. There is no question that the standard deficit measures may indicate a healthy fiscal situation which is in reality fragile. However, as shown by recent developments, guidelines for assessing fiscal vulnerabilities are doubtful and unclear. This question is related to the perennial and difficult issue f â€Å"early warning systems† to predict the probability of an impending fiscal or financial crisis. It may well be that such early warnings are feasible and appropriate. Among the thorny difficulties, however, there is the risk of a self-fulfilling prophecy, where the early warning itself could cause financial markets to become concerned and hence spark a crisis. Thus, on the â€Å"balance† of the debate, against any real crisis that an early warning system has predicted accurately, one should place other crises, that might not have happened were it not for the warning itself. . Preparation of a macroeconomic framework A macroeconomic framework typically includes projections of the balance of payments, the real sector (i. e. , production), the fiscal accounts, and the monetary sector. It is a tool for checking the consistency of assumptions or projections concerning economic growth, the fiscal deficit, the balance of payments, the exchange rate, inflation, credit growth and the share of the private and public sectors on external borrowing policies, etc. 21 Preparing a macroeconomic framework is always an iterative exercise.A set of â€Å"initial† objectives must be defined to establish a preliminary baseline scenario, but the final framework requires a progressive reconciliation and convergence of all objectives and targets. Considering only one target (e. g. , the fiscal deficit) in this iterative exercise risks defining other important targets as de facto residuals. â€Å"General government† (see chapter 2) should be considered when preparing the fiscal projections and defining the fiscal targets, but the fiscal tar gets should also be broken down between central and local government.In some decentralized systems, by law a fiscal target cannot be directly imposed on subnational and local government. In those cases, it is necessary to assess the feasibility of achieving it by means of the different instruments under the control of the central government (such as grants, control of borrowing). However, the constraints on running fiscal deficits are typically much tighter on subnational entities than they are on central government. The main reason is the central government’s capacity to regulate money supply. Therefore, in some federal systems (e. . , the U. S. ) many states have their own constitutionally mandated requirement of an annual balanced budget. Fiscal projections should cover the consolidated account of the general government and quasi-fiscal operations by the banking system. Future expenditures related to contingent liabilities as a result of government guarantees should be ass essed (see chapter 2). In a majority of developing countries, it is desirable to prepare â€Å"consolidated accounts of the public sector,† to identify financing requirements for the public sector as a whole.Very often, however, only the central government is included, giving a misleading fiscal picture and the temptation to â€Å"download† the fiscal deficit onto local government entities. This practice is conducive neither to sound fiscal policy nor to the subsidiarity structure appropriate to the specific country. Unfortunately, governments and international financial institutions have paid insufficient attention to this problem. The degree of sophistication of fiscal projections depends on the technical capacities within the country and the availability of data and appropriate tools. Sophisticated odels can be useful. Nevertheless, since the major objective is to set a general frame for formulating macroeconomic objectives and checking their consistency, the prepar ation of a macroeconomic framework does not necessarily require sophisticated modeling techniques. On the contrary, these techniques may give a sense of misplaced concreteness and a â€Å"forecast illusion† which may hamper the practical value of the framework. Using simple â€Å"quasi-accounting† models would already represent significant progress in many countries. 22 Such models include mainly accounting relations (e. g. GDP plus net imports equals consumption plus investment) and only a limited number of behavioral relations defined by simple ratios (e. g. , consumption, income), without resorting to econometric techniques. The models are also easier to use in discussions on fiscal policy, whereas the outputs of a sophisticated econometric model depend on the approach adopted by the modeler, and the process is necessarily more opaque. In any case, forecasting revenues should be based on detailed analyses and forecasts by individual tax rather than on the aggregate outputs of a macroeconomic model.The problems revealed by the projections (e. g. , lack of consistency between economic growth targets and monetary policy) must be discussed among the agencies involved in macroeconomic management. The preliminary baseline scenario gives the macroeconomic information needed for preparing sectoral and detailed projections, but these projections usually lead in turn to revising the baseline scenario. Such iterations should continue until overall consistency is achieved for the macroeconomic framework as a whole. The iteration process is not only necessary for sound macroeconomic and xpenditure programming, but is also an invaluable capacity-building tool, to improve the awareness and understanding of involved agencies—and therefore their cooperation in formulating a realistic budget and implementing it correctly. [Please see attached Figure 5. xls] The preparation of a macroeconomic framework should be a permanent activity. The framework needs t o be prepared at the start of each budget cycle to give adequate guidelines to the line ministries. As noted, it must then be updated throughout the further stages of budget preparation, also to take into account intervening changes in the economic environment.During budget execution, too, macroeconomic projections require frequent updating to assess the impact of exogenous changes or of possible slippage in budget execution. In addition to the baseline framework, it is important to formulate variants under different assumptions, e. g. , changes in oil prices. The risks related to unexpected changes in macroeconomic parameters must be assessed and policy responses identified in advance, albeit in very general terms, of course. The importance of good data cannot be underestimated. Without reliable information, the macroeconomic framework is literally not worth the paper it is written on.This includes the collection of economic data and the monitoring of developments in economic condi tions (both of which are generally undertaken by statistics bureaus) as well as the monitoring and consideration of changes in laws and regulations that affect revenue, expenditure, financing and other financial operations of the government. 2. Aggregate expenditure estimates Typically, a macroeconomic framework is at a very aggregate level on the expenditure side, and shows total government wages, other goods and services, interest, total transfers, and capital expenditures (by source of financing).Assumptions and underlying policy objectives therefore concern the broad economic categories of expenditures, rather than the allocation of resources among sectors. Moreover, transfers or entitlements are not reviewed in sufficient detail and assumptions on future developments are not compared with continuing commitments. Thus, when elaborating a fiscal framework on the basis of the overall macroeconomic framework, estimates of the impact of the assumptions and the aggregate fiscal targe ts on the composition of expenditure, by sector or economic category, are required to assess whether the fiscal targets are realistic and sustainable, and to etermine the conditions to meeting these targets. Therefore, the preparation of aggregate expenditure estimates could help in assessing the sustainability of expenditure policy, and thus improve the budget preparation process (notably when defining expenditure ceilings for the various sectors). These estimates could cover: (i) the forward costs of large investment projects; (ii) projections for the more important entitlements; and (iii) aggregate projections of other expenditures, by function and broad economic category.These estimates are less demanding in terms of capacity and institutional process than the formal Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) described in chapter 13, but could be a step toward the implementation of a comprehensive MTEF. Indeed, this step is mandatory if some sectoral multiyear expenditure programm ing exercise is carried out (covering only investment or a few sectors), to prevent inconsistency between the sectoral program and the macroeconomic framework, or the crowding out of expenditure in noncovered sectors or categories.Focusing only on technical issues while neglecting the fundamental question of the division of administrative responsibility inevitably produces a weak or inoperative macroeconomic framework. Some major considerations in this respect are discussed in chapter 5. 3. Consolidating the fiscal commitments a. Making the macroeconomic projections public While the iterative process leading to a realistic and consistent macroeconomic framework must remain confidential in many of its key aspects, when the framework is completed it must be made public.The legislature and the population at large have a right to know clearly the government policy objective and targets, not only to increase transparency and accountability, but also to reach a consensus within civil soci ety. While such a consensus may take additional time, and require difficult debates, it will also be an invaluable foundation for the robust and effective implementation of the policy and financial program. A good example is provided by the government of Hong Kong, China, which annexes its medium-term forecast to the annual budget speech (box 16 and annex VII). Box 16Medium-Range Forecasts: The Example of Hong Kong, China The Medium Range Forecast (MRF) is a projection of expenditure and revenue for the forecast period based on forecasting assumptions and budgetary criteria. To derive the MRF, a number of computer-based models that reflect a wide range of assumptions about the factors determining each of the components of government’s revenue and expenditure were used. As summary is shown here, a fuller description is in Annex VII. Assumptions relating to developing expenditure and revenue forecast over the mediumterm period are the following: †¢ estimated cash flow of c apital projects forecast completion dates of capital projects and their related recurrent consequences in terms of staffing and running costs †¢ estimated cash flow arising from new commitments resulting from policy initiatives †¢ the expected pattern of demand for individual services †¢ the trend in yield from individual revenue sources †¢ new revenue measures in 1998-1999 In addition to these assumptions, there are a number of criteria against which the results of forecasts are tested for overall acceptability in terms of budgetary policy: †¢ †¢ †¢ †¢ Maintain adequate reserves in the long-termExpenditure growth should not exceed the assumed trend growth in GDP Contain capital expenditure growth within overall expenditure guidelines Revenue projections reflect new measures introduced in this year’s budget To summarize, the MRF of Hong Kong is shown below: (in $Hk billion) 1998-1999 Revenue 192,680 Expenditure 182,480 Surplus 10,200 To tal public expenditure 288,890 Gross domestic product 1,497,880 Growth in GDP (nominal) 12. 9 (real) 5. 0 Public expenditure as a percentage of GDP 19. 3 Forecast years 1999-2000 2000-2001 211,390 242,900 200,740 227,830 10,650 5,070 315,830 354,060 1,690,740 1,908,420 12. 9 12. 9 5. 0 5. 0 18. 7 18. 6 2001-2002 271,330 258,570 12,760 393,980 2,154,130 12. 9 5. 0 18. 3 Source: Medium Range Forecast of Hong Kong, The Internet, August 8, 1998. In some countries, government projections are submitted to a panel of independent and respected experts to ensure their reliability, while preserving the confidentiality required on a few sensitive issues. In other countries, the projections are validated by the Auditor General (e. g. , the United Kingdom and the Canadian province of Nova Scotia23).The independence of the Auditor General adds credibility to the projections. However, any other form of participation of audit offices in the budget formulation process would be questionable. In any e vent, manipulation and alteration of forecasts would soon reduce the government's credibility and hence its influence. b. Binding fiscal targets? Several countries have laws and rules that restrict the fiscal policy of government (â€Å"fiscal rules†). 24 For example, an earlier golden rule stipulated that public borrowing must not exceed investment (thus mandating a current budget balance or surplus).In some cases, the overall budget must be balanced by law (as in subnational government in federal countries). In the European Union, the Maastricht Treaty stipulates specific fiscal convergence criteria, concerning both the ratio of the fiscal deficit to GDP and the debt/GDP ratio. (The former has been by far the more important criterion. ) One frequent criticism of such rules is that they favor creative accounting and encourage nontransparent fiscal practices. When they are effectively enforced, nondiscretionary rules can also prevent governments from adjusting their budgets t o the economic cycle. 5 Aside from the special case of European integration, one may generally consider that, in countries with fragile coalition governments, fragmented decision making, and legislative committees acting as a focus for periodic bargaining, setting up legally binding targets may be appropriate. In other countries, however, binding targets could in effect predetermine the budget before its preparation even begins. 26 In contrast with an approach based on rigid targets, other countries (e. g. , New Zealand) do not mandate specific fiscal targets, but refer to criteria such as prudent levels and reasonable degrees.It is left to the government to specify the targets in a Budget Policy Statement, which presents total revenues and expenses and projections for the next three years. This statement is published at least three months before the budget is presented to Parliament, and is reviewed by a Parliament committee but not formally voted by Parliament. 27 Box 17 The New Z ealand Fiscal Responsibility Act Enacted in 1994, the New Zealand Fiscal Responsibility Act offers a comprehensive legal framework for formulation and conducting fiscal policy in general, and for incorporating a long-term orientation in the budget process in particular.While many OECD countries have similar practices in place, the Fiscal Responsibility Act is an example of these practices being enacted into law. The primary objective of the Fiscal Responsibility Act was to entrench sound fiscal policies and make it difficult for future governments to deviate from them. There are two provisions of the Act: (i) a regime for setting fiscal objectives that focuses attention on the long term; and (ii) an extensive system of fiscal reporting with unique mechanisms to ensure its credibility and integrity. The extensive reporting required by the act serves two purposes.First, it serves to monitor the consistency of the government’s fiscal actions with its stated fiscal objectives. Se cond, it brings general transparency to government finances by mandating the disclosure of all relevant fiscal information in a timely manner. The act requires two specialized reports: the Fiscal Strategy Report and the PreElection Economic and Fiscal Update. The Fiscal Strategy Report, which is presented to Parliament along with the budget, assesses the consistency of the policy framework contained in the budget with the short-term fiscal intentions and long-term fiscal objectives outlined in the Budget Policy Statement.The Pre-Election Economic and Fiscal Update contains the threeyear forecasts of all key economic and fiscal variables. Both reports contain two statements of responsibility, one by the Minister of Finance and one by the Secretary to the Treasury (a civil servant). These statements of responsibility aim to clarify the roles of politicians and civil servants in producing reports and give a greater role to civil servants in producing them, thereby increasing the overal l credibility of the reports. Source: â€Å"Budgeting for the future,† OECD working paper, 1997.More important than specifying ex-ante targets and general criteria is to ensure that institutional arrangements and processes favor coherence among resource constraints, fiscal objectives, and expenditure programs. This broader issue involves the mechanisms for policy formulation, the budget preparation process, the role of the Ministry of Finance in budgeting, and the development of appropriate instruments for reviewing expenditures within a longer period than the annual budget. Box 18 A Good Macroeconomic Coordination Practice: The â€Å"Gang of Four† in Thailand The Thai system of budgeting is highly centralized.It embodies a longstanding set of arrangements, rules, and procedures that together help exert discipline on aggregate fiscal management. It grants very little autonomy to line agencies over their budgets, and imposes weak accountability on them for their perform ance. The hallmark of the Thai budgeting system is aggregate fiscal discipline. A â€Å"gang of four† interacts to control the level of spending and thus the deficit: the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB), the Ministry of Finance (MOF), the Bank of Thailand (BOT), and the Bureau of the Budget (BOB) in the Prime Minister’s Office.The gang of four is responsible for formulating the macroeconomic framework that serves as the basis for the aggregate expenditure ceiling. It also determines for the most part the ministerial ceilings. Prioritization is largely a function of the gang of four. It ensures that the budgetary requests of line agencies are consistent with the objectives of the five-year development plan. The gang of four’s control over aggregate allocations to agencies and to expenditure categories implies that it exerts considerable leverage over priority setting.In Parliament, the Budget Scrutiny Committee chaired by the Minister of Fi nance evaluates the government’s proposal. Cabinet members can propose amendments to the government’s proposal but seldom make significant changes in allocations to line agencies because of limited technical capability to evaluate such proposals. Politicians can alter the allocation of line agencies. After a series of deliberations and negotiations, the committee submits the budget bill to Parliament. The Parliament almost always accepts the bill.Source: Campos and Pradhan, â€Å"Budgetary institutions and expenditure outcomes, 1996. 4. Policy formulation a. Importance of policy formulation The budget preparation process is a powerful tool for coherence. The budget is both an instrument of economic and financial management and an implicit policy statement, as it sets relative levels of spending for different programs and activities. However, policy decision making is complex and involves different actors in and outside the government.It is a technocratic illusion to e mbed all policy formulation within the budget process (as to some extent was the ambition of the PPBS; see chapter 3). However, a coherent articulation should be sought between the policy agenda (which should take into account economic and fiscal realities) and the budget (which should accurately reflect the government's policy priorities). The budget process should both take into account policies already formulated and be the main instrument for making these policies explicit and â€Å"operational. However, policies must be defined outside the pressure of the budget process. Making policy through the budget would lead to a focus only on short-term issues and thus to bad policy, since the policy debate would be invariably dominated by immediate financial considerations. (This is frequently the unfortunate outcome in developing countries with weak capacity faced with financial difficulties. ) In earlier times, medium-term development plans were intended as the instrument for setting up government strategy. However, these plans were rigid, invariant, and usually out of sync with financial realities.Paradoxically, therefore, they indirectly led in practice to the same dominance of short-term financial considerations. Organizational arrangements are discussed in chapter 5. b. The policy-budget link A bridge between the policy making process and the budget process is essential to make policy a breathing reality rather than a statement of wishes. For this purpose at least two clear rules must be established. 28 The resource implications of a policy change should be identified, even if very roughly, before a policy decision is taken.Any entity proposing new policies must quantify their effects on public expenditure, including the impact both on its own spending and on the spending of other government departments. The Ministry of Finance should be consulted in good time about all proposals involving expenditure before they go into ministerial committee or to the cent er of the government and certainly before any public announcements are made. Within the budget formulation process, close cooperation between the Ministry of Finance and the center of government is required, at both the political and the technical level.The role of the center is to ensure that the budget is prepared along the lines defined; to arbitrate or smooth over conflicts between the Ministry of Finance and line ministries; and to assure that the relevant stakeholders are appropriately involved in the budget process. (This is a major challenge, which can only be mentioned here but requires care and commitment on a sustained basis. ) An interministerial committee is needed to tackle crosscutting issues and review especially sensitive issues.And, most importantly, each entity involved in the budget process must perform its own role in a responsible fashion, and be given the means and capacity to do so. c. Reaching out: The importance of listening Consultations can strengthen leg islative scrutiny of government strategy and the budget. Legislative hearings through committees and subcommittees, particularly outside the pressure environment of the annual budget, can provide an effective mechanism for consulting widely on the appropriateness of policies (issues related to the role of the legislature are discussed in chapter 5) .The government should try to get feedb